One of the most common questions in sports betting is whether it’s better to bet on favourites or underdogs. Many players instinctively lean toward favourites, assuming the most likely winner is the safest option. Others chase underdogs in search of bigger payouts.
In reality, neither approach is inherently better. What matters is how the odds reflect probability, not which side looks more appealing.
What Are Favourites and Underdogs?
In sports betting:
- Favourites are teams or players expected to win
- Underdogs are considered less likely to win
This expectation shows up directly in the odds: favourites carry lower odds, underdogs carry higher odds. On sportsbooks that display American odds, favourites are marked with a minus sign (like -200) and underdogs with a plus sign (like +250) – but it’s the same underlying idea as decimal pricing, just a different notation. Lower odds mean a higher implied probability, not a guaranteed outcome.
Why Betting on Favourites Feels Safer
Favourites feel safer because:
- they win more often
- the outcome seems more predictable
- public opinion tends to support them
However, lower odds also mean lower potential returns, and frequent small losses can add up if the prices being offered aren’t actually favourable.
The Risk of Overvaluing Favourites
A common mistake is assuming favourites are always “safe bets”. In practice:
- favourites are often overpriced relative to their real chances
- public money pushes their odds even lower
- value gets squeezed out the more popular a favourite becomes
Winning more bets doesn’t automatically mean better long-term results if the odds on offer don’t reflect fair value.
Why Underdogs Offer Higher Payouts
Underdogs come with higher odds because:
- they win less frequently
- outcomes are more uncertain
- fewer people are willing to back them
Higher odds compensate for lower probability, but they also increase variance – you’ll be wrong more often, even when the bet was reasonable.
The Challenge of Betting on Underdogs
While underdogs can offer value, they also:
- lose more often
- require patience and discipline through longer losing runs
- test emotional control more than steadier favourite bets do
Betting on underdogs without proper analysis often leads to frustration rather than profit.
The Favourite-Longshot Bias
There’s a well-documented pattern in betting markets known as the favourite-longshot bias: heavy favourites tend to be priced slightly closer to their true win rate, while big underdogs (longshots) tend to be priced worse than their actual chances deserve.
The likely explanation isn’t that sportsbooks are trying to trick anyone – it’s that recreational bettors are willing to pay a premium for the excitement of a big potential payout, so books can shade longshot odds down slightly and still get plenty of action on them. Favourite prices, by contrast, tend to attract more scrutiny from sharper bettors, which keeps them closer to fair.
To illustrate the idea (these numbers are for illustration, not a live market): a -200 favourite implies a 66.7% win probability. If that category of favourite actually wins closer to 70% of the time across many similar games, the favourite was mildly underpriced – good value. A +250 underdog implies a 28.6% win probability; if that category of underdog only wins around 24% of the time in reality, the underdog was overpriced – the “exciting” price wasn’t backed up by the real odds of it happening.
This doesn’t mean underdogs are never good bets – plenty are. It means longshot prices deserve extra scrutiny rather than extra excitement, since that’s exactly where mispricing tends to concentrate.
Favourites vs Underdogs: It’s About Value
Good bets are about value, not labels.
A favourite can be a poor bet if the odds are too low.
An underdog can be a good bet if the odds overestimate the risk.
The decision should always come down to whether the implied probability matches reality – which is the same underlying idea covered in our guide to value betting.
How Odds and Probability Guide Better Decisions
To evaluate favourites and underdogs properly, you need to:
- understand what betting odds actually mean
- compare odds across sportsbooks rather than accepting the first price you see
- assess whether the price reflects true chances or just public sentiment
Without this, betting decisions become guesswork dressed up as an opinion.
Common Mistakes Players Make
Many players:
- blindly back favourites for comfort
- chase underdogs for the excitement of a big number
- ignore probability entirely and bet on a hunch
Both extremes lead to inconsistent results over time.
Which Approach Is Better for Beginners?
For most beginners, favourites are easier to understand, variance is lower, and results feel more predictable – which makes them a reasonable place to start. That said, beginners should still focus on learning odds and probability, not just picking whoever looks most likely to win.
Are favourites always better value than underdogs?
No. Neither side is automatically better value – it depends on whether the specific price reflects the true probability of that outcome. Both favourites and underdogs can be overpriced or underpriced depending on the matchup.
Why do American odds show negative numbers for favourites?
Negative American odds (like -150) show how much you’d need to stake to win $100, while positive odds (like +150) show how much you’d win on a $100 stake. Favourites get negative numbers because you’re risking more than you stand to win.
Betting on favourites versus underdogs was never really about choosing a side. It’s about understanding how odds are priced and recognizing when probability and value actually line up – letting the numbers guide the decision instead of comfort or excitement.
Related reading: Value Betting Explained · Implied Probability Explained · How to Compare Odds Across Sportsbooks · Sports Betting Strategies That Actually Make Sense
